My Bitcoin daily strategy. Thoughts and analysis.

A quick daily outlet of my thoughts including analsis of Bitcoin movements and brief insight into my daily strategy.

Any trades I open or close will be listed here. No values will be listed (think beer money, no Lambos or yachts on order… Yet!) I will include my reasoning for the trades and a description of my risk management will be explained.

Not financial advice.

My previous daily post using support and resistance can still be found here.

Thursday 18th June 2020

Bitcoin has been moving sideways now for the past 7 days. It has been bouncing around $9,430.

My thoughts for today are that this now looks extremely ‘toppy’ and I’m guessing a move to the downside is highly likely after yesterday’s push for a higher low.

Any breakout needs to happen quickly, if it is going to happen.

Analysis:

Fragile support at $9,323. Lower FIB support at $8,932.

Lots of room for movement still on the RSI downside.

I would be surprised at any movement up.

Open Trades

BAT (Bought at 0.1618) with a stop loss in profit set below the 50 day MA line.

XRP (Bought at 0.22460) with no stop loss, will hold if I have to. Very bad risk management on this one. You don’t win them all though. Haven’t sold therefore I haven’t lost.

Recent stopped out trades (in profit) were:

NEO (Bought at 8.408 / Sold at 10.010)
TRX (Bought at 0.01394 / Sold at 0.01500)

What goes up must come down! – How I use ‘FIB Extension’ – Fibonacci Extension

Bull runs are great, aren’t they? Unfortunately though as the title says the old adage is true.

It goes up it comes down = volatility.

Bitcoin is extremely good for this and makes trading fast and fun, if you’re on the correct side of the trades.

Bitcoin, and cryptocurrency in general, is the stock market… On steroids, wheeeeee.

There can be lots of money to be made/transferred to the educated, or lucky, but that would quickly run out. Knowing where to buy and sell intentionally is the way forward.

Continue reading “What goes up must come down! – How I use ‘FIB Extension’ – Fibonacci Extension”

For me this is the most essential trading tool. Fibonacci Retracement – Using support and resistance.

I remember looking at my first Bitcoin chart and thinking “Oh, awesome!” – Now what? Especially when Bitcoin was touching $19,000 (I’m not bitter about not buying £100’s worth still, honest!)

I believed for a long while that these movements were fairly random and there must be some sort of luck involved in managing to work out where to place a buy or sell trade. I considered it to be ‘trading bots’ automatically knowing when to trade.

However, I have a very determined personality and refused to give up looking for the “key” to trading. These movements were too structured to be just luck.

If only I could work out what this is doing, where is it going?

After months of searching I actually found a pretty effective way.

Continue reading “For me this is the most essential trading tool. Fibonacci Retracement – Using support and resistance.”

Elliott Waves – Sounds boring, right? I can assure you it’s not…

Somebody called Ralph Nelson Elliott, who was a lot smarter than me, worked out that that all tradable assets on the stock market move in waves. This was I believe in the 1930’s way before the time of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency.

The good thing for us though is that the same trends still occur in cryptocurrency trading. Why? Well, it is all to do with everyone looking at the big chart together.

When we’re all working out our support and resistance lines, and looking at channels etc, we’re all buying and selling at particular points.

This creates a “wave” effect and equals an increase in price and retracements.

Continue reading “Elliott Waves – Sounds boring, right? I can assure you it’s not…”

So, we have found the direction and we have identified support and resistance… Now, where the heck is this going long-term? Introducing channels.

Time to be honest, once again. I really struggle with placing channels whilst trading. Cryptocurrency, unlike the stock market, doesn’t really seem to move in traditional channels.

That being said though it is always good to try and use them. It’s better to have some idea of long-term predicted movement rather than placing a trade and just hoping.

Continue reading “So, we have found the direction and we have identified support and resistance… Now, where the heck is this going long-term? Introducing channels.”

Sorted, I understand the indicators. Show me the next lot of fancy stuff! – TA, Trading Analysis.

Now that we have established a price direction using cryptocurrency indicators, we’re going to have to see if this direction is following any trading trends.

Bitcoin, similar to the stock market, has certain ways in which the value is traded. Imagine there is a big chart and everyone has seen a trend together and are following the same lines and levels. It is this that we need to identify as well.

Continue reading “Sorted, I understand the indicators. Show me the next lot of fancy stuff! – TA, Trading Analysis.”

Daily Bitcoin Analysis – Using Support and Resistance

My daily Bitcoin analysis – Let’s see if I can actually get this right!

Update: I will not be adding any more daily analysis using only support and resistance to this post. I have started another post, which can be found at the top of the blog. Whilst I will be using support and resistance with my TA I will now mainly be using Moving Averages.

Just a brief daily mind stretch. Trying to see if I can identify Bitcoin support and resistance.

Feel free to add a comment if you see anything I miss.

Not financial advice. I’m just trying to work out the overall direction for Bitcoin in the near future.

(This is just for fun) Remember; Bitcoin is a highly volatile beast and has the ability to change direction, in seconds.

Always use a stop loss!

Please note: I am neither bull or bear. I trade either direction, it’s all about the money, baby.


Monday 15/06/20

Daily (Yellow)
Higher Fib resistance $10,225.32
Lower Fib support $8,931.10

Major resistance at $10,373.75 (Purple)
Major support at $9,052.56 (Blue)

Opening price: $9,341.08

I’m going to simplify the way I do trading. Whilst I will still continue to use this TradingView chart for reference I will be relying on using MA (Moving Averages) lines instead.

This will be my last update on this post today. I will start a new one that will replace this as a ‘sticky’ topic. Since the beginning of the Coronavirus lockdown I have been using the much more simplified MA lines. This is mainly because I haven’t had as much time to monitor every move of Bitcoin due to other commitments.

I have found this new strategy to be highly effective without being so time consuming, and as a plus for anyone following this, it will be easier for everyone to follow.

I will still be looking for trends using my full TA but will only publish my TradingView chart when it is really required.

So, for the last time for a little while here is my TradingView analysis:

** Click on image to expand **

Daily Bitcoin chart for the 15th June 2020
Bitcoin has completed a full 5 Elliott Wave up. Will lower support now be reached at $9,052.56?

Previous day’s predictions:

Continue reading “Daily Bitcoin Analysis – Using Support and Resistance”