Daily Bitcoin Analysis – Using Support and Resistance

My daily Bitcoin analysis – Let’s see if I can actually get this right!

Update: I will not be adding any more daily analysis using only support and resistance to this post. I have started another post, which can be found at the top of the blog. Whilst I will be using support and resistance with my TA I will now mainly be using Moving Averages.

Just a brief daily mind stretch. Trying to see if I can identify Bitcoin support and resistance.

Feel free to add a comment if you see anything I miss.

Not financial advice. I’m just trying to work out the overall direction for Bitcoin in the near future.

(This is just for fun) Remember; Bitcoin is a highly volatile beast and has the ability to change direction, in seconds.

Always use a stop loss!

Please note: I am neither bull or bear. I trade either direction, it’s all about the money, baby.


Monday 15/06/20

Daily (Yellow)
Higher Fib resistance $10,225.32
Lower Fib support $8,931.10

Major resistance at $10,373.75 (Purple)
Major support at $9,052.56 (Blue)

Opening price: $9,341.08

I’m going to simplify the way I do trading. Whilst I will still continue to use this TradingView chart for reference I will be relying on using MA (Moving Averages) lines instead.

This will be my last update on this post today. I will start a new one that will replace this as a ‘sticky’ topic. Since the beginning of the Coronavirus lockdown I have been using the much more simplified MA lines. This is mainly because I haven’t had as much time to monitor every move of Bitcoin due to other commitments.

I have found this new strategy to be highly effective without being so time consuming, and as a plus for anyone following this, it will be easier for everyone to follow.

I will still be looking for trends using my full TA but will only publish my TradingView chart when it is really required.

So, for the last time for a little while here is my TradingView analysis:

** Click on image to expand **

Daily Bitcoin chart for the 15th June 2020
Bitcoin has completed a full 5 Elliott Wave up. Will lower support now be reached at $9,052.56?

Previous day’s predictions:


Thursday 19/03/20

Daily (Green)
Higher Fib resistance $6,617.40
Lower Fib support $4,312.63

Major resistance at $9,204.20 (Purple)
Major support at $3,368.06 (Blue)

Opening price: $5,405.09

No predicted change. We have been in a Bart for the past 6 days, with constant sideways movement. It has however, been an interesting day today and things are looking more promising.

I’m still not going to enter a trade at this point. I am controlling the FOMO feeling. This is until I see a close above the major support and then possibly a retest in a day or two.

It will be promising if it doesn’t drop below the ‘new’ daily Fib line (yellow) at $5,956.19

I think this still can break and fall further. Hopefully I am wrong, we will see.

The RSI has risen quite quickly and there is still no cross on the MACD.

Am I currently in a trade? No.

** Click on image to expand **

Daily Bitcoin chart for the 19th March 2020
Better day today, but will this hold? RSI has shot up but MACD still needs to cross.

Saturday 14/03/20

Daily (Green)
Higher Fib resistance $6,617.40
Lower Fib support $4,312.63

Major resistance at $5,597.26 (Purple)
Major support at $3,368.06 (Blue)

Opening price: $5,539.70

My predicted daily change – Lower. Bitcoin closed under the major resistance point of $5,597.26. To me this indicates a retrace is inbound.

There is a very thin support at the old lower Fib around $4,312.63.

Personally I think we’re on for a triple bottom at $3,368.06, or this could break for even lower. If it was to break we would be back at levels not seen since July 2017 and almost a full retrace from the highs of $19,000 back in December 2017.

Am I currently in a trade? No. This is now way to indecisive. I’m holding off.

** Click on image to expand **

Daily Bitcoin chart for the 14th March 2020
Bitcoin looks so unstable right now. Price closed under the major resistance yesterday. To me this indicates more downwards movement.

Friday 13/03/20 – Correct

Daily (Green)
Higher Fib resistance $6,617.40
Lower Fib support $4,312.63 (Wow, we really did go low!)

Major resistance at $5,597.26 (Purple)
Major support at $3,368.06 (Blue)

Opening price: $4,903.09 – Closing price: $5,539.70

My predicted daily change – Remaining higher, maybe a small push up further.

What’s the score now? – Bitcoin has rested kind of close to the lowest daily Fib. Hopefully this is the end of the fall. I am now definitely looking for a buy in point, sometime soon.

You would have to be extremely brave to buy at the moment, but that is what ‘market makers’ are for. I am sure they’re are setting the course for the next direction now.

It has been funny to watch some of the chat boxes on the exchanges and TradingView with some people mentioning how they have never seen Bitcoin do this before. Some of them having only been following Bitcoin for 6 months to a year…

It’s happened before, the falls in January 2018 were brutal.

“Bitcoin is DEAD” and “It’s the end of crypto” – I love these people and these sayings. I’ve seen it time and time again. For me, I start looking for the reversal roughly around these times.

So, where we at?

I have set a new daily Fib at this point (Yellow). I am using the end of the recent fall as my ‘Swing Low Point’ and will drag the Daily Fib up as each day passes.

Bitcoin is currently sat just under a major resistance point of $5,597.26. If this is truly a reversal it should push past this point with ease shortly.

A new very small support level is showing at $4,425.98. Will be interesting to see if this becomes stronger over the next few days.

I have removed the daily Fib extension lines as they are obsolete now. The daily Fib lines have been dragged over, for now, to use as reference. I will probably stop using these very shortly as well.

Am I currently in a trade? No.

** Click on image to expand **

Daily Bitcoin chart for the 13th March 2020
Bitcoin has pushed much further down reaching as low as $4,900 – Is this the beginning of a reversal?

Thursday 12/03/20

No analysis again today, Bitcoin has already made it’s move. I was one day ahead with my prediction that this would fall. The tiniest lift yesterday and now another substantial fall.

The MACD overnight had got more aggressive. It certainly didn’t look like it would fall this hard again for a while. Whilst I expected the major support to break I didn’t think it would just carry on down as far as it has.

Bitcoin has sliced through the daily Fib extension line at $7,555.52, also pushed straight past the daily Fib line at $7,410.9. The major support at $7,293.74 was broken and now it is resting on the Fib extension line at $7,083.63.

Will there be enough buying power to push the price back above the last major support at $7,293?

Scrap that. As I am typing this Bitcoin has just moved into $6,900 range.

I called $6,528 as a triple bottom yesterday on the LIVE – Bitcoin chart it’s at $6,700 now… Let’s see how this plays out. – I can’t type quick enough!

Am I currently in a trade? No.

** Click on image to expand **

Daily Bitcoin chart for the 12th March 2020
Where from here? After a huge fall to around $5,500 will Bitcoin regain support? Triple bottom, or more down?

Wednesday 11/03/20 – Wrong

Daily
Higher Fib resistance $8,047.23
Lower Fib support $7,410.90

Major resistance at $9,204.20
Major support at $7,710.78

Opening price: $7,883,77 – Closing price: $7,949.28

My predicted daily change – Lower. Yesterday’s high of over $8,047 appears to of been a fake out. The close was way under the daily Fib line at the same price.

The major support at $7,710 was tested, and held, again as well. I see more of the same for today. I expect the support to break though.

The MACD is now showing a stable decline. No more harsh drops, I don’t think, for the moment.

The RSI shows little to no effort in any change to the upside.

Am I currently in a trade? No.

** Click on image to expand **

Daily Bitcoin chart for the 11th March 2020
Expecting Bitcoin to make a third test of the major support at $7,710.78. Will it hold?

Tuesday 10/03/20

Well, support actually held. It was a little touch and go at one point and the reversal wick was sold off, but again bought back.

No prediction today as Bitcoin is already looking to remain higher, which after yesterday is to be expected. That being said this only applies, if, Bitcoin closes above the daily Fib at $8,047.23.

Yesterdays close was under the daily Fib and so there is every chance of it moving back under. If it does, that would signal to me a continuation of the downtrend.

At this point it is very difficult to tell if this is the beginning of an upwards reversal. I would need to see more positive moves, and the MACD to look a little healthier, before entering any trade.

Always looking out for Elliott Wave number 1, but these don’t always play out.

I don’t actually trade Bitcoin as I have said before. I will be looking at several AltCoins for the usual suspects who move first. These are the AltCoins that I choose to trade, there are hundreds more. The first movers, for me, are normally EOS, NEO and then BAT or TRX.

If I choose to trade any of these AltCoins it will be on a buy the support and sell the higher Fib basis, I do not purposely hold cryptocurrency anymore.

I always monitor Bitcoin though, where the “King” goes everyone (eventually) follows.

Am I currently in a trade? No.

** Click on image to expand **

Bitcoin daily chart for the 10th March 2020
Bitcoin is at a crucial point. Daily Fib support needs to hold at $8,047.23 and close above today.

Monday 09/03/20 – Correct

Daily
Higher Fib resistance $8,047.23
Lower Fib support $7,410.90

Major resistance at $9,204.20
Major support at $7,710.78

Opening price: $8,059.76 – Closing price: $7,943.08

My predicted change – Lower. Massive move yesterday. Bitcoin sliced through the old higher Fib line, Fib extension line and the old lower Fib line. Typical Bitcoin move, all or nothing.

Certainly made for entertaining viewing on the LIVE – Bitcoin chart.

The price has bounced off the major support at $7,710.78. I think it will close higher than this support line today, but lower than the opening price.

The biggest part of the fall, in my mind is over. That was a big buy back off the support and we now have what I consider a “reversal wick”.

Interesting that the price closed above the daily Fib line before suddenly falling again.

I will be watching the RSI and MACD closely for any potential change to the up side.

Am I currently in a trade? No.

** Click on image to expand **

Daily Bitcoin chart for the 9th March 2020
After a huge fall Bitcoin needs to, and should, hold this major support at $7,710.78.

Sunday 08/03/20 – Correct

Opening price: $8,873.20 – Closing price: $8,059.76

I knew I should of gone with my gut feeling yesterday. The downturn was looking very likely but I decided to go with the fact that the support was holding. I thought maybe there would be a small boost before the fall.

Oh well, can’t always be right and this is why using a stop loss is so important.

Today looks like a continuation of yesterday’s trend… It’s going down.

I’ve decided to experiment with my Bitcoin chart and in purple you will now see that I have tried to count Elliott Waves for the downwards travel.

If I am right, then we are in ‘wave 5’ and this should now continue to fall further.

No support levels now until around $8,482.09, which is the daily Fib from the original climb up. Will it hold or head straight to the Fib extension for the decline at $8,336.47?

Am I currently in a trade? No.

** Click on image to expand **

Daily Bitcoin chart for the 8th March 2020
No support for Bitcoin now until around the lower daily Fib at $8,482.09

Saturday 07/03/20 – Wrong

Daily
Higher Fib resistance $9,478.98
Lower Fib support $8,924.42

Major resistance at $10,373.75
Major support at $9,052.56

Opening price: $9137.23 – Closing price: $8,873.20

My predicted change – Higher. Going to take a punt on this one. Support at $9,052.56 is proving to be real tough, although admittedly there isn’t much pressure either way. In my mind we are close to top of the channel being created. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a downturn in the next 24 hours.

Although I’ve predicted higher I don’t expect any amazing upwards turn, unless the MACD crosses today, then maybe a small boost… Who knows? Weekend trading is always sketchy.

The RSI is so weak right now.

Am I currently in a trade? No.

** Click on image to expand **

Daily Bitcoin chart for the 7th March 2020
Could be a small boost here for Bitcoin before any kind of downwards travel. Creating the top of the channel?

Friday 06/03/20 – Correct

Daily
Higher Fib resistance $9,478.98
Lower Fib support $8,924.42

Major resistance at $10,373.75
Major support at $9,052.56

Opening price: $9,041.78 – Closing price: $9137.23

My predicted daily change – Higher. Bitcoin actually had a good day yesterday. It was really 50/50 but the price managed to claw back over $9,000 again.

The close finished over the daily Fib of $8,924.42 , which is a good start to today.

There seems to of been a support test already with the price dropping close to the daily Fib. This has been quickly bought back and is now resting on the very old major support of $9.052.56.

The MACD hasn’t crossed yet for a higher move but the RSI is looking a little stronger. I still think this is only setting the top of the daily channel, which I believe overall is still downwards. However, we shall see… It is Bitcoin after all.

Am I currently in a trade? No.

** Click on image to expand **

Daily Bitcoin chart for the 6th March 2020
Surprisingly Bitcoin has made it above $9,000 again. Will the support hold?

Thursday 05/03/20

Opening price: $8,750.85 – Closing price: $9,041.78

No analysis today as Bitcoin has already made a move higher.

I’m going to stick with my prediction that this is just sideways movement (Barting), there is no clear direction at the moment.

It’s a watch and wait day today to see if Bitcoin can break the higher daily Fib at $8,924.42.

The RSI is starting a move up and MACD is starting to show signs of trying to change direction upwards.

Am I currently in a trade? No. I wouldn’t trade right here.

** Click on image to expand **

Bitcoin daily chart for the 5th March 2020
Previous close under daily Fib. Indicators showing signs of a move up.

Wednesday 04/03/20 – Correct

Daily
Higher Fib resistance $8,924.42
Lower Fib support $8,481.72

Major resistance at $10,373.75
Major support at $7,710.78

Opening price: $8,772.45 – Closing price: $8,750.85

My predicted daily change: Lower – No man’s land today. The RSI is struggling to rise and the MACD is still showing a downwards trend, albeit slowly. As suggested yesterday probably just sideways to extend the channel before the next leg down.

At best, if I’m wrong, I would think a push to the higher daily Fib line.

Am I currently in a trade? No.

** Click on image to expand **

Bitcoin daily chart for the 4th March 2020
Really inconclusive day today. This type of movement is hard to trade. No clear movement either way.

Tuesday 03/03/20 – Correct

Daily
Higher Fib resistance $8,924.42
Lower Fib support $8,481.72

Major resistance at $10,373.75
Major support at $7,710.78

Opening price: $8,914.73 – Closing price: $8,772.45

My predicted daily change: Lower – Bitcoin closed under the daily Fib line and has started a retrace. Could be as much as 100% retrace on yesterday. RSI has bounced and is now showing downwards direction and the MACD is continuing to show a gradual decline.

If the price closes under the lower daily Fib line of $8,481.72 it may carry on down to the daily Fib extension line at $8,330.81.

There is a fair chance that we may just go sideways for a day or two, just to extend the channel. Possible slight lift and then further down after? Just a guess.

Am I currently in a trade? No. Patience is difficult at this point. I would like to short but I’m not willing to lose more money. My trading plan is to buy the bottom of this fall, and I’m sticking to it!

Update: 10th March 2020 – In hindsight a long-term short right here would of been perfect. Regrets? None. Managing risk is so important. It’s Bitcoin, there will be more opportunities.

** Click on image to expand **

Bitcoin daily chart for the 3rd March 2020
Expecting a retrace. Possible sideways after for a day or two.

Monday 02/03/20 – Correct

Opening price: $8,503.83 – Closing price: $8,914.73

A clear bounce off the daily Fib at $8,481.09 over the weekend – Probably going higher today.

Next daily Fib, which is unlikely to be broken today, is at $8,929.42.

Overall direction for this week is likely to continue down, the price may continue its short bounce up for a day or two. So far there has been no long wick down with a buy back to signal the end of this fall.

The next major support is at $7,710.78

Am I currently in a trade? No.

** Click on image to expand **

Bitcoin daily chart for the 2nd March 2020
Clear bounce off the lower daily Fib. The price may reach the higher daily Fib today. It’s unlikely to break it.

Friday 28/02/20 – Correct

Daily
Higher Fib resistance $8,919.94
Lower Fib support $8,485.06

Major Resistance at $10,373.75
Major Support at $7,710.78

Opening price: $8,822.98 – Closing price: $8,692.90

My predicted daily change: Lower – I was surprised that Bitcoin held a level of being slightly up yesterday by $36.96. All indicators are still pointing down today and certainly looks like it is going to carry on downwards.

Am I currently in a trade? No.

I have decided to show a copy of my daily Bitcoin chart so that you can visually see what I am following.

KEY:
Horizontal white lines x 2 top and bottom = Long term channel.
Purple lines = Major resistance.
Blue lines = Major support.
Green lines = Daily Fib – From last climb up.
Red lines = Fib Extension – Being respected for the downwards movement.

Indicators:

MACD and RSI – Read more about these here.

** Click on image to expand **

Bitcoin daily chart for the 28th February 2020
No support now until the lower daily Fib at $8,485.06. Expecting a lower price today.

Thursday 27/02/20 – Wrong

Daily
Higher Fib resistance $8,919.94
Lower Fib support $8,485.06

Major Resistance at $10,373.75
Major Support at $7,710.63

Opening price: $8,786.02 – Closing price: $8,822.98

My predicted daily change: Lower – All indicators are pointing downwards. No bounce off the daily Lower Fib support just yet. Descending Fib extension support is at $8,324.52. Bitcoin has sliced through the last 2 major supports like a hot knife through butter. There is no reason for it to bounce here in my opinion.

Am I currently in a trade? No. I will now wait for a support, at whatever level, to confirm and then purchase some alt coins for the next move back up.


Wednesday 26/02/20 – Correct

Didn’t expect the retrace so soon, it was over 100% as well. Wave B failed and now movement into downwards direction. Sunday 23rd and Monday 24th Bitcoin price started to obey the descending Fib Extension lines. This should of been a warning I guess that it was going lower, not higher.

Bitcoin has already bounced off the lower Fib Extension at $9,096.32. This will probably be as low as it will go today. I would expect another move lower tomorrow. The next lower Fib Extension support is at $8,328.39.

Am I currently in a trade? No.


Monday 24/02/20 – Wrong

Daily:
Higher Fib resistance $10,355.70
Lower Fib support $9,467.56

Major Resistance at $10,373.75
Major Support at $9,324.54

Opening price: $9,936.55 – Closing price: $9,656.24

My predicted daily change: Higher – Closed well above higher Fib Extension. No real evidence for a test of the lower level, buying pressure seems high. Wave B confirmed?

Am I currently in a trade? No, I’m expecting a possible big rejection at the major resistance of $10,373.75


Sunday 23/02/20 – Correct

Daily:
Higher Fib resistance $10,355.70
Lower Fib support $9,467.56

Major Resistance at $10,373.75
Major Support at $9,324.54

Opening price: $9,650.29 – Closing price: $9,936.55

My predicted daily change: Higher – As previously predicted, lower Fib Extension line was tested yesterday. It hasn’t broken and has been bought back. Another re-test of the higher Fib Extension is likely today at $9,773.59. With support it is likely to push above.

15 minute in a ‘Bart’ – Scalper’s paradise.

Am I currently in a trade? No. Weak moves so far for the past few days. A big drop down is still possible if someone sells a lot now.


Saturday 22/02/20 – Correct

Daily:
Higher Fib resistance $10,355.70
Lower Fib support $9,467.56

Major Resistance at $10,373.75
Major Support at $9,324.54

Opening price: $9,677.21 – Closing price: $9,650.29

My predicted daily change: Lower – Descending Fib Extension line touched yesterday, closed below. Will probably test lower Fib Extension line at $9,580.31. Could possibly bounce off, or break down past, daily fib at $9,467.56.

Am I currently in a trade? No. I still don’t see this going much higher than a double top, if it all. Possible Wave B – No trade zone for me.


Friday 21/02/20 – Correct

Daily:
Higher Fib resistance $10,355.70
Lower Fib support $9,467.56

Major Resistance at $10,373.75
Major Support at $9,324.54

Opening price: $9,599.12 – Closing price: $9677.21

My predicted daily change: Higher – The lower Fib was tested for a second time yesterday, which held. Bought back over and closed above. *Possible “double top” forming. Wave B.

Am I currently in a trade? No – Being cautious. I think this is nearly top, for now. Significant retracement from here is, I think, likely. Any fall here would be hard and fast.


Thursday 20/02/20 – Correct

Daily:
Higher Fib resistance $10,343.08
Lower Fib support $9,551.00 – (Hit 19/02/20)

Major Resistance at $10,457.02
Major Support at $9,311.88

Opening price: $9,584.29 – Closing price: $9,599.12

My predicted daily change: Higher – Previous long wick down, bought back above lower Fib. (Bounced)

Am I currently in a trade? No.


Wednesday – 19/02/20 – Correct.

Daily:
Higher Fib resistance $10,343.08
Lower Fib support $9,551.00

Major Resistance at $10,457.02
Major Support at $9,699.38 (Broken)

Opening price: $10,167.91 – Closing price: $9,584.29

My predicted daily change: Lower

Am I currently in a trade? No.

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